Mike’s Midterm Tsunami Truth #36
Dem Insiders Quietly Confide to Me What We’ve Known All Along
Well, my friends, it’s been a very interesting few days. After 5 weeks of my daily insistence that we, the majority, are going to have a Blue Tsunami on Tuesday, I am now (especially after being on TV last night) hearing from Democratic Party insiders who want to tell me (confidentially) that my belief in our victory is not unfounded and is now looking more and more, well, likely.
A couple of these Dem apparatchiks of course had their own reasons to share this good news with me. One asked if I could stop saying we’re gonna win. “We’re worried if people think we’ve pulled ahead,” one said to me, “there’s a chance they'll say ‘oh good, I don’t need to vote!’”
“That’s old thinking,” I texted back. “The public is already setting new early-voting records. People — our people — are on fire! Women are fed up and in the middle of a not-so-quiet rampage. They’re gleefully looking forward to extracting the men from Congress who support the medieval practice of forced procreation.”
“True,” he texted back. “Pollsters show abortion as #3 on the list of concerns, but that doesn’t account for the intensity and yes it’s huge. The anger over Roe decision is huge.”
I added: “And the anger from young voters is also huge. They know we’ve left them with a dying planet. Their only hope for survival is to toss every last one of the planet killers overboard.“
“Agreed. They’ll also be there in record numbers on Tuesday.”
Another Dem Party person contacted me to thank me for the “brave and correct” stance of believing in the “possibility of the Democratic victory.” She also said I was probably hurting their fundraising.
“You mean,” I replied, “all those scary emails you guys keep sending out saying we need to ‘DONATE $17 BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT OR WE’RE GOING TO LOSE!!’”
“Yes,” she said. “We need the money. And yes, the more scared people are, the more they’ll give. Your blog is making many of them feel less scared and more hopeful. Not good Mike.”
“Hope,” I offered, “in a time like this, is not a bad thing. Especially if it is based on facts and not simply emotion. Why not have the DNC send out a mass email this weekend telling everyone that their hard work is paying off! Tell them what you just told me — that your internal research is showing Fetterman is going to win Pennsylvania by at least 6 points! Grassley in Iowa is probably going to lose. That New Hampshire was never really in play!”
“Don’t share those stats I gave you,“ she admonished me.
“Sure,” I laughed. “That’s why you gave them to me. Of all people. So I wouldn’t share them with a few million others. Do you also wanna tell me that Val Demings is going to beat Marco Rubio?”
One other takeaway from these conversations was their belief that, in post-pandemic America, polling is a “broken science.”
“Don’t dignify polls by referring to them as a science,” I said. “It’s the fraud of propaganda, trying to invent a factual basis for what is a work of fiction.”
“You’re essentially right,” one admitted to me. “Before the vote in Kansas [this summer to keep legal abortion in their state Constitution], FiveThirtyEight wrote that the anti-abortion crowd was going to win by four points. They lost by 18 points! Polls are bullshit.”
They pointed out to me that these days a lot of “polls” are actually funded by corporate lobbying groups and others with Republican backing. Often when you hear about the latest “poll,” it’s often an aggregate of many polls and the Republican and business interests do their best to include their biased polls in the soup so that the percentage for their desired candidate rises to the top.
“Look at the small print,“ one of them said. “Some of them list a ‘margin of error, plus or minus, 10 or 12 points!’”
So it’s true — we are being played for suckers. The Republicans need us to believe that Mandela Barnes in Wisconsin doesn’t stand a chance. They must “depress” our vote, convince us we’re going to lose before we even open the ballot envelope.
Last night I received a letter to my Substack address from someone else who works inside the Democratic Party. Someone who wanted me to know the truth about what they knew from inside the (soft) belly of the party of Obama, JFK and FDR. He wanted me to know that what I’ve been telling you for 37 days is the truth and nothing but.
Here’s his letter:
In 2018, I started working as a consultant for the Democratic Party in its campaigns. It was a dream job come true. I've always been a politics junkie and it felt good to be doing my part (and make a living wage).
But 2022 has broken me.
Last year, I started working for the Dems on digital fundraising and let me tell ya, Mike: These motherf***ers in the Party really do care more about raising money than helping people or even winning their own elections.
You know all those emails that say "give us $25 or terrible stuff will happen"? Yeah, I’m the one who writes them.
Part of the reason I wanted to reach out to you is because of your prediction that Dems can still win big on Election Night. As someone on the inside who watches and monitors this stuff for a living — I want to tell you why you are 100% right.
Anytime you see a headline talking about a “Republican surge” in the polls, that data is likely sourced from one of three places: FiveThirtyEight, Real Clear Politics, or the Cook Political Report.
These outlets are poll aggregators that average the results of multiple polls to come up with their “predictions.”
Since September, the GOP has purposefully flooded the zone with conservative-leaning polls in an effort to game these aggregators.
This is admittedly a brilliant strategy — but it also means headlines warning of a red tsunami that may be severely overstating the Republican advantage.
It also explains why recent polls don't reflect the early-voting data — which shows a clear Democratic advantage.
Numbers do, in fact, sometimes lie. If folks actually show up between now and Tuesday to the polls, the Democrats will win.
I know you say it all the time — but please, please, please beg listeners to vote.
Wow. There you go. And I have no problem or loss of pride in coming to each of you and begging you to please, please, please get out and vote and get others to vote with you over these next 4 days.
I have been calling many of your relatives and friends, the phone numbers you’ve sent me, to convince them to vote. If we all do our part, we are going to have a Blue Tsunami on Tuesday, putting the final nail in the virtual coffin of a two-year coup attempt to destroy our Democracy.
Please do something this weekend —
Consider this that extra push you need to get off the couch and on the ground knocking on doors and talking to your neighbors about voting. Grab a friend and do it together!
Don’t like knocking on doors? Encourage everyone you encounter this weekend to vote — your next-door-neighbor raking their leaves, the cashier at your grocery store.
Wanna go bigger? Go on a mini-road trip to help out the swing state near you!
Or keep it remote! Make some tea, have a lozenge ready and make some calls for Democratic candidates through an organization like Vote Save America, Democratic National Committee or Sunrise Movement, your states’ local Democratic party, or directly through candidates’ websites: Cheri Beasley (D-North Carolina), Mark Kelly (D-Arizona), Mandela Barnes (D-Wisconsin), John Fetterman (D-Pennsylvania), Raphael Warnock (D-Georgia), Tim Ryan (D-Ohio), Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nevada).
Don’t like calling strangers? Call everyone in your contact list!
Do whatever you can to Get Out The Vote!
I’ll be posting a new podcast in the next day or so, plus my final Midterm Tsunami Truths which I’ll email you. Please share them with others. Please vote.
P.S. I’ll be on Joy Reid with Rob Reiner tonight at 7pm ET on MSNBC.
And then tomorrow with Alex Witt on MSNBC at 1pm ET. Tune in!
Mike’s Midterm Tsunami of Truths:
Truth #1: The Campaign
Truth #2: Even a kid from 4th hour Trig class can beat this crowd
Truth #3: The Haters, the Bigots and the Supremacists Always Lose in the End
Truth #4: Introducing The Whackadoodle 10
Truth #5: Trump is not the Big Bad Wolf. But he is very afraid of You.
Truth #6: The Easy-to-Digest Republican Party Platform
Truth #7: Biden, Don’t F**k with Me
Truth #8: If you’re not registered, you can’t Roe, Roe, Roe the Vote!
Truth #9: Why will we win? Because the American people hate fascism.
Truth #10: Meet Blake Masters, Whackadoodle No. 9
Truth #11: 147 Reasons We Will Win on November 8th
Truth #12: Biden just gave us a boost and a toke.
Truth #13: Women. That’s it.
Truth #14: If the Mainstream Media Thinks There’s a Chance We May Be Right about Roevember, Watch Out.
Truth #15: Republican candidate for Governor of Pennsylvania, Whackadoodle No. 8
Truth #16: As Alex Jones has now been fined a billion dollars for his lies, that is nothing compared to the punishment other Republicans are going to get on November 8th.
Truth #17: Early Voting, Mail-in Voting, Dropbox Voting — These Were Made for Libs, Hard Workers, Book Readers, Artists, Busy Parents, Slackers, and Progressives like us! In other words, The Majority!
Truth #18: The Good Queen vs. The Mad King
Truth #19: A Workers' Revolt Extends to the Voting Booth
Truth #20: We Are in Charge
Truth #21: Don’t believe it.
Truth #22: If the election is about inflation and the economy, THANK GOD — We Win
Truth #23: We Believe in Science. And that’s why we will win.
Truth #24: Vote Local, Win National
Truth #25: The side with the best nursery rhymes wins.
Truth #26: We Will Win Because Americans Don’t Want to See This Happen...
Truth #27: We are going to win because our side has millions of good souls like this…
Truth #28: Whackadoodle No More
Truth #29: They’ve Got Big Plans That We’ve Gotta Stop
Truth #30: Turn Off the News! Stop Reading the Paper! They’re Filling Your Head with Mush.
Truth #31: If I Had a Hammer
Truth #32: This Is All You Need to Know
Truth #33: Let Me Call Your Non-voting Brother-in-Law!
Truth #34: Deep Down, You Know You’re Being Played
Truth #35: The kids are all right.
Graphic by Danijelala via Getty Images
Button by Mark Hovater
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