Do the Math: Trump Is Toast

If everyone does their part in the next few weeks, Trump is going down in flames. So say I.

Oct 04, 2024

Right now, if you know how to really read the polls, or if you have access to the various private and internal polling being conducted by and shared only amongst the elites, Wall Street, and Members of Congress, then you already know that this election was over weeks ago. Trump simply refused to believe that “Sleepy Joe” was no longer his opponent and that there was instead “some woman” claiming she was “Black” who was now going to pummel him on Election Day. He soon became unhinged, ranted for hours about Hannibal Lecter, Haitians cannibalizing your pets, and a nonstop drone of oral diarrhea spewing misogyny, racism and essentially claiming that if he loses “it will be the Jews’ fault.”

The vast majority of the country, the normal people, have seen enough and want the clown car to disappear into the MAGA vortex somewhere between reality and Orlando. The swift and explosive momentum for Kamala Harris is unlike anything that’s been seen in decades. Which is why maybe at this point in my rant I just need to say out loud that which is being said to me in private by people I respect — and not just in whispers, but in excited tones of exuberance: That a new era is being born, one where caucasian is just one of the options but no longer the bossy pants of the world. Where it’s OK if you’re missing the lower right quadrant of the second X chromosome thus making it a “y” which means you’re never going to have your own fallopian tubes so just deal with it and keep your hands off the gender who has them. Simple.

An aggregate of top polls as of today shows that Harris will defeat Trump in the Electoral College count by 270 to 268.

But I think we need more. We need to ensure that Trump loses in a landslide, with numbers so massive, the likes of which haven’t been seen since the entire country tuned in to watch Geraldo open up Al Capone’s vault. Because that’s the only way to guarantee his permanent removal from the public eye. We should settle for nothing less.

As it stands now, here are the basic conclusions I’ve come to by simply being around my fellow Americans who are shopping at Costco, having fun making TikToks and eating once a week at Chili’s:

Harris will win 6 states west of the Rockies: Colorado, New Mexico, California, Oregon, Washington and Hawaii.

Harris will also win 6 of the 8 Great Lakes States: Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois, Pennsylvania and New York.*

And Harris will win the District of Columbia and the 10 New England and Atlantic states from the Canadian border to Virginia — including Virginia, Maryland, DC, Delaware, New Jersey, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, New Hampshire, Vermont and Maine.

(Sorry, we just ran out of clip art for “Know My States!” You know what they look like.)

In the 2 states that don’t do winner-take-all electors, Maine and Nebraska, Trump will win one elector from Maine and Harris will win one elector from Nebraska.

So right now the crystal ball brings the Harris and Trump totals to…

Harris: 270

Trump: 268

Since losing the debate to Harris, Trump’s momentum has come to a screeching halt. Even with Vance “winning” the debate on Tuesday night with his “charm,” “civility,” “politeness” and “the“ “Satanic” “laser rays” “shooting” “out” “from” “his” “eyes” “into” “our” “brains,” it did not help change anyone’s mind. Harris continues on her rocket ship, never slowing down and only increasing her popularity each day. Trump’s voting base is now severely depressed and more and more they have that sinking feeling as they realize there is no way now for Trump or the Astros to win.

BUT…

You and I know that there are always ways for him to win. We just don’t know what they are because we don’t have “666” inscribed on our foreheads in invisible ink. We do know that Trump has a stellar streak of pulling off the impossible — and those who have written him off have more than once lived to see the day where they must eat humble pie. It is never wise to do a victory dance on the two-yard line when Trump is your opponent.

So, each of us must still do our work to get out the vote and, most importantly, make sure Harris has a Democratic House and Senate elected next month to pass her/our legislation next year.

I know many of you are still afraid that somehow Trump is going to win. So, knowing how skittish many of you are about November 5th, let me break it down for you and show you how difficult winning is going to be for him. And even if he picks off a swing state or two, there will be more than one way to stop him.

Here are the 3 scenarios:

If Trump wins Michigan, Harris can overcome that by winning either Georgia or North Carolina. That’s all she’ll need. Or, if Harris can’t pull that off, she can still lose Michigan and be the new president by winning Arizona AND Nevada. One little hiccup: When Biden and Harris won Michigan in 2020, they did so with a whopping 66% of the Arab and Muslim vote. 130,000 Arab/Muslim Michiganders voted for Biden and Harris — more than double what Trump got. But polls here in Michigan since last October have shown that the vast majority of Biden’s Arab voters decided not to vote for his ticket come this November due to his funding and arming of Netanyahu’s slaughter of the people in Gaza. By summer, I thought President Biden would have stopped this. Sadly, that did not happen. And to this day, Biden has refused to demand that those to whom we give our bombs and our billions in Israel must follow our laws and refrain from committing war crimes. What Biden did do that may save the vote in Michigan was to stop running for president, and instead, turn the reins over to his Vice President who had been pushing for a ceasefire and a compliance to our American values of human rights and not killing civilians. Her personal critique of Prime Minister Netanyahu was exactly what the majority of the Americans wanted. An end to the war on Gaza. She supported protecting the lives of Israelis, but she was not going to stand for the use of mass starvation as a weapon of war. I think she felt pretty strongly about this — so much so that when Netanyahu came to address a joint session of Congress, with a speech full of vitriol and an out-of-control condemnation of the youth of America who had organized mass protests across the country to stop the madness, she refused to attend his speech and thus not sit with him on the platform. He was appalled, and the next day he made a beeline to Mar-a-Lago to commiserate with the American Bibi. There are those who understand the symbolism of what happened that week and, like me, hold out a profound hope that U.S. policy regarding Israel/Palestine will soon be better. One sign of that is from two new polls in Michigan which show that Harris’s chances may now have improved over Biden’s with the Arab-American community. But not all the way. She is still 18 points behind the vote they both received in Michigan in 2020. But hey, no biggie. Do we really need Michigan to win in November? Since WWII, the last Democrat who won the White House while losing the state of Michigan was… NO ONE! (Well, except for the one and only president in all of history who was actually from Michigan — Gerald Ford.) As Michelle Goldberg from the New York Times wrote, “If You Lose Michigan, You Lose the White House.”
So what can Biden do to help his Vice President? Does he really feel good telling the Arabs and Muslims of Detroit and Flint to go f*** themselves? Hey Mr. President, don’t worry about us! Heck, we’re used to it. Our 10,000 kids who got brain damage from drinking the poisoned water of Flint when a Democrat was in the White House — I’m sure these young people won’t hold it against anyone when they’re finally old enough to vote in the next election.**
If Trump wins Pennsylvania, then Harris MUST win either Georgia or North Carolina — PLUS either Nevada or Arizona.
If Trump wins Michigan AND Pennsylvania, Harris can still beat him by winning Georgia, North Carolina AND either Nevada or Arizona.

And even if the worst case happens with Trump winning Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, Harris will still go to the White House if she wins Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona AND Nevada.

My own gut reaction is that there will be an uprising of women at the polls, handing Trump a historic defeat in which Harris could win it in a landslide:

Harris: 55%
Trump: 42%
3rd Party: 3%

Here are some handy maps that show the various potential outcomes based on if Harris wins the states Biden won in 2020, the states Obama won in 2008 and 2012, and a map of all the states that both Biden and Obama won in those three elections:

If Harris Wins the States She and Biden Won in 2020:

Electoral College Count:

HARRIS: 303

TRUMP: 235

If Harris Wins the States that Obama Won in 2008:

HARRIS: 357

TRUMP: 181

If Harris Wins the States that Obama Won in 2012:

HARRIS: 326

TRUMP: 209

If Harris Wins All the States that Obama Won PLUS the Additional States Biden/Harris Won:

HARRIS: 384

TRUMP: 154

So, final thoughts…

What could upend this positive result for Kamala Harris?

Well, as I explained, Biden’s continued funding and arming of the Netanyahu regime has already depressed the Michigan vote. So those of us in Michigan are working hard to bring out new voters to make up for the loss. In 2016, 75,000 Michiganders who voted on Election Day went into the voting booth and voted for all the offices on the ballot — except for President. They just left the top line blank. I guess they didn’t like the choices they were given. We’ll try to make sure people do not leave this line blank.

Also, another mistake that could be made in these final 4-5 weeks is if Harris is advised by her wealthy donors to shun the left and drop her more progressive positions in favor of a “move to the center.” This, too, could reduce or depress the vote for Harris, especially among the base. I know many of you don’t want to hear that, but I’m just trying to warn you that the actions of party hacks and pundits have consequences. They had the candidate traipsing around Wisconsin yesterday with Liz Cheney to get out the vote. Thank you Liz Cheney for doing the right thing. But there’s an estimated one million people in Wisconsin who didn’t vote in 2020. We need them out in droves on November 5th. THAT should be the heart and soul of the get-out-the-vote drive — in Wisconsin and every other state! 80 million Americans didn’t vote in 2020. The nonvoters are the second largest political “party” in the U.S.! All we need is just a few thousand of them to show up — just this once — to make a difference: To cut taxes for all working people, to make the rich pay theirs, to keep the government off women’s bodies, to stop all war, to make sure every American has a seat at the table and a piece of the pie! This isn’t “partisan” — this is our Freedom, this is our Democracy! For God’s sake, let’s do this! We are all in the same boat!

If there ever was an election where the totally unexpected and crazy could happen, this is already that election. Assume nothing. Take zero for granted. Work to prevent the worst results and prepare to make a possible Trump presidency a complete failure by spending these next weeks helping to elect Democrats to the House and Senate, thus creating a Blue Wall that will guarantee Trump will not be able to do anything for the next four years.

Onward!

— Mike

* I am happy for New Yorkers to read that they are a Great Lakes State. Because they are. I want them to feel good that they and Michigan are on the same exact lake (Erie). That they have double the number of Great Lakes than Illinois has. And that they need to stop calling me so late at night because they think Michigan is in the Central Time Zone. I ❤️ NY.

** I am not bitter. I wish I was just “bitter.” When it comes to what happened to Flint, I’m still in a rage.

Photo by Jeff Swensen/Getty Images

Michael Moore

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