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Obama surge stands or falls with Afghan training

By Jennie Matthew / AFP

KABUL — President Barack Obama's strategy of bringing a quick end to the war in Afghanistan with 30,000 more troops hinges on training and equipping enough Afghan forces to secure the country themselves.

But analysts say that proper recruitment and training of an army and police able to hold the Taliban at bay are likely to take far longer than the 18-month period outlined by Obama before foreign troops start coming home.

Obama's top commander in Afghanistan, who had requested tens of thousands of extra troops to avoid defeat, said he now had "the resources to accomplish our task" and that his "main focus" will be to build up Afghan security forces.

General Stanley McChrystal, who expects to command more than 140,000 NATO and US troops once reinforcements arrive, vowed to transfer responsibility to Afghan security forces "as rapidly as conditions allow".

President Hamid Karzai has pledged to take responsibility for Afghan security within the next five years.

But analysts warn it could take up to another decade to build up the necessary numbers in a country riddled with corruption, where more than 70 percent of the population is illiterate and the Taliban are expanding.

"The only solution to the conflict in Afghanistan is to build a strong security force in Afghanistan," said Haroun Mir, director of Afghanistan's Centre for Research and Policy Studies.

"It will require more sacrifices, both financially and in lives of soldiers. It is too optimistic. We won't be able to create a new force to stabilise the country in five years. We need another decade of commitment," he said.

"We won't be able to reach the benchmark of 400,000 security forces in 18 months... but at least if the Afghans take responsibility for security in some places in 18 months, I think that will be a big achievement."

McChrystal told journalists it would take "at least four years by our computations to get to 400,000 so what I think we need to do is we need to develop as quickly as we can and that is what we are doing now".

There are nearly 100,000 troops in the Afghan army, which is projected to grow to 136,000 next year. Karzai allies are calling for up to 240,000 soldiers and a massive contingent of 160,000 policemen.

The government recently announced a 33-percent pay rise for soldiers and police in an effort to boost morale, and eliminate corruption and defections.

But experts warn that the nation lacks literate young men, veterans with leadership skills, facilities for training, and money for weapons.

General Egon Ramms, a German commander in the NATO-led force in Afghanistan, warned last month that the current police force of around 68,000 is prone to corruption and training has been less than efficient.

Out of 94,000 Afghan soldiers trained so far, 10,000 have defected, he said, while estimating that 15 percent of the armed forces are drug addicts.

Much will depend on the kind of government that emerges in Afghanistan after a presidential election tarred by rampant fraud. Karzai has yet to name his cabinet and the West hopes he will shed corrupt warlord allies.

"It depends on the political will of both parties: the Afghans and the international community," said Hashem Mayar from ACBAR, an umbrella organisation for more than 100 aid organisations in Afghanistan.

"If they are trained enough and if they are well-equipped it will take less time," he said. "But if it is like what we've seen before, it will take longer."

UN envoy Kai Eide, who came under heavy criticism over his mission's handling of the August election, said the West's strategy had to lie in a future "where greater authority is given to the Afghan institutions".

Mohammad Qayoum, who earns the equivalent of 170 dollars a month as a policeman in Kabul, has never troubled himself with the bigger political picture but knows his colleagues are dying.

"The Afghan army has been calling for more police, more Afghan soldiers, better equipment, weapons and salaries. We all know that's what we really need," he told AFP.